Bluffing at its best

"Knowing WHAT to do...is about 10% of the game.
Knowing HOW to do it...is the other 90%."
-- Doyle Brunson

Most people "get" what Doyle wrote very easily. For others, the concept comes across as if he’s speaking Martian. They spend all their time concentrating on the what, finding the correct play. When they have found it, they think they are done. But all they have is the 10% of the concept

An easy example: trying to bluffing on the river in a situation where you know your opponent is weak handed, but you know your hand is by far the worse. For instance, you are fairly certain your opponent has a busted Ace high flush draw, while you have a busted straight draw. He has Ace high. You have Jack high. There are ten big bets in the pot. By bluffing you will win this pot sometimes -- not always, not never, sometimes. Deciding to bluff is the right thing to do. But don’t stop there, that’s just 10% of winning poker.

By far more important than that basic observation that a bluff is called for is the ability to pull the bluff off. I called this "executing" Clearly if when Rhonda bluffs in this situation she wins 75% of the time, that is tremendously better than if when Billy bluffs he wins only 15% of the time. With these different success rates, after 100 similar hands playing $10/20, Rhonda will be ahead $14,500 (75 times she wins $200, 25 times she loses her $20 bet), while Billy will only be ahead $1300 (15 times he wins $200, 85 times he loses his $20). Even though she only wins the bluff five times more often than Billy, Rhonda wins more than eleven times what Billy does!

This is an extreme example, but it’s clear that if Rhonda similarly consistently executes better than Billy, she is going to win far more money than him -- even though they both always choose the same action! The how of poker, the execution, leading to better success rates, this is what winning is all about.